The New England Patriots lose to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on a missed field goal in Tom Brady’s return to Foxborough. But according to stats experts, this kick shouldn’t have happened.

Munich/Foxborough – Tom Brady’s return to Foxborough surprisingly turned into a thriller. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers ultimately defeated the New England Patriots thanks to a missed field goal by Patriots kicker Nick Folk, who put the football on the post from 56 yards.

The statistics website “Next Gen Stats” has now evaluated that Bill Belichick’s decision to kick the field goal from 56 yards reduced the Patriots’ win probability by over ten percent.

But first things first: New England had the ball at the opposing 38-yard line with 59 seconds on the clock and would have had to cover four yards on fourth down to get another first down. Factoring in all contingencies, such as weather, the probability of a Patriots win was 24.3 percent at the moment of the field-goal decision, according to Next Gen Stats. Had Belichick decided to play out the fourth attempt, the win probability would be 34.7 percent.

📰: Week 4&39;s biggest fourth-down decisions according to the NGS Decision Guide powered by @awscloud

We break down the numbers behind Bill Belichick&39;s decision to try a 56-yard field goal instead of going for it in the final minute of @SNFonNBC

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— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 4, 2021

The Patriots coach gave his usual reserved response at the press conference when asked if he had considered playing off the try. “Not really. The kick just missed.” The loss leaves New England in third place in the AFC West with a 1-3 record and two wins behind the Buffalo Bills