⁠Last season, the Kansas City Chiefs were in the Super Bowl and were also considered the top favorites for the 2025 season. However, the reality is quite different. Even their playoff participation is in serious jeopardy.

Patrick Mahomes needed a moment to process the 19-22 loss to the Denver Broncos.

He congratulated Broncos quarterback Bo Nix and then disappeared into the locker room without commenting publicly on the crisis facing his Kansas City Chiefs. It was only at the press conference that the 30-year-old vented his frustration – and did not hold back on self-criticism. “I think we’re really talented and we have a lot of great players, but it’s about being more consistent. That starts with me,” explained the playmaker. “There are phases when I’m in rhythm and we move the ball effortlessly down the field. But then there are moments when we get stuck – when I miss a throw or a protection call is off. We haven’t been consistent enough to win games.”

It’s striking that the Chiefs are losing close games this season. Five of their ten games so far this season have been one-score games – all of which ended in defeat. Optimists might argue that the Chiefs haven’t lost a game by more than one score this season. The downside, however, is that Kansas City has lost what was actually its greatest strength.

By comparison, in the 2024 regular season, the Chiefs had eleven one-score games – all of which they won.

Kansas City Chiefs: Statistics are deceptive

Statistically, Kansas City’s interim record doesn’t look too bad.

The Chiefs’ offense ranks seventh in the NFL with an average of 364.2 yards per game. Their scoring average of 25.4 points per game is also respectable (ninth place).

The defense is even stronger in comparison. They allow an average of only 18.1 points per game. This is the fourth-best record in the league. In other words, the Chiefs are still a top team statistically—only the results tell a different story.

Patrick Mahomes: Lots of passing yards—but poor decisions

Quarterback Mahomes is the fourth most productive quarterback in the NFL with 2,645 passing yards. 64.5 percent of his passes are completed. Although this is his lowest rate in eight seasons as a starter, it is still a respectable figure. His highest completion rate came last season, at 67.5 percent. However, the statistics do not reveal that Mahomes often makes the wrong decisions in crucial game situations.

This was also evident in the game against the Broncos: instead of setting up a safe field goal in the third quarter, he threw a risky interception in the red zone – resulting in the Broncos’ only touchdown drive. Mahomes was also unable to turn the game around in the final quarter: two incomplete passes and a sack prevented a successful final spurt.

“That’s exactly what you want – you want to have that opportunity at the end of the game,” Mahomes continued. “But I didn’t take advantage of it. I’ve been in this situation many times before: if you get the first first down, it puts you in a good position. This time, I didn’t find it, and they brought a good blitz on third down. I hardly gave myself a chance.”

Sobering predictions for the Chiefs

The two consecutive losses have dropped the Chiefs to a 5-5 record. According to The Athletic’s playoff simulator, the franchise’s chances of making the playoffs are now only 58 percent, and the probability of winning the division is only nine percent.

Even more sobering is a statistic from ESPN: Before this season, 989 teams in the Super Bowl era had a record of 5-5 or worse after ten games. Only 89 of those teams (9 percent) went on to make the playoffs, and only two made it to the Super Bowl. The only team to win the Super Bowl was the New England Patriots in 2001, led by then-rookie starting quarterback Tom Brady.

Kansas City Chiefs: Difficult remaining schedule

Will the Chiefs miss the playoffs for the first time since the 2014 season?

The Chiefs’ remaining schedule is difficult. This Sunday, they face the Indianapolis Colts (8-2), one of the NFL’s hottest teams. This will be followed by games against the Dallas Cowboys (3-5-1), the Houston Texans (5-5), the Los Angeles Chargers (7-4), the Tennessee Titans (1-9), the Broncos again (9-2), and finally the Las Vegas Raiders (2-7).

“You have to focus on each week,” said linebacker Nick Bolton. “Every week feels almost like a playoff week now. We have to find a way to take it game by game.”

Those involved are aware of the situation. “It’s going to be tough to get back into the division race,” Mahomes said. “The goal is to make the playoffs and try to make a run. We have to learn as much as we can from this game because we know we’ll have a great opponent at Arrowhead next week. We’re at a point where we have to find a way to win games.”