Draft Lottery: Fortunately, the NFL doesn’t use the NBA format – a commentary

In the NBA, the number one pick in the draft is determined by a “lottery.” It’s a process that wouldn’t work in the NFL – a commentary.

Admittedly, the NBA draft lottery has a certain charm.

It’s an additional, eagerly anticipated event in the year. Which of the 14 franchises that didn’t qualify for the playoffs will get the number one pick?

Between a 14 percent chance (for the three worst teams) and a 0.7 percent chance for the Atlanta Falcons, the “best” remaining franchise this year, anything was possible.

In the end, the Dallas Mavericks won with only a 1.8 percent chance. They will likely be able to select superstar Cooper Flagg, the best player in college, in the upcoming draft. What a stroke of luck.

Makes little sense for the NFL

In the NBA, any player at any position can make a difference and take a team far. In the NFL, a world-class left guard, an outstanding safety, or the best nose tackle ever won’t get you to the Super Bowl.

In a sport where teams consist of a 53-man roster, one player is often not enough for a big turnaround – at least if it’s not a quarterback. The franchises are too dependent on that one position.

Teams that have been stuck in no man’s land for years and are denied the number one pick in the lottery year after year, and with it the big chance to get a future franchise quarterback, would take forever to become competitive again.

And even a quarterback in the number one position is no guarantee of long-term success – although it does increase the chances, of course.

Good teams could become even better

A good number one quarterback pick can end this endless spiral, as was recently the case with the Cincinnati Bengals, who selected their franchise QB in 2020 with Joe Burrow at number one.

In the event of a draft lottery, franchises that narrowly missed the playoffs (whether due to injuries or other unfortunate circumstances) would also have the chance to improve again next year with an early pick. Meanwhile, the really bad teams would not be able to select absolute draft superstars.

It’s good that the NFL hasn’t opted for this model so far. Because the gap between weak and strong would widen even further. It’s highly unlikely that this will ever happen anyway.

Even if you have to admit without envy: the draft lottery in the NBA simply has a certain charm.

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4 weeks ago
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