The revolutionary change to the kickoff rule will have a major impact on NFL games. The only question is how exactly.

The NFL season is starting and with it the final use of the new kickoff rule.

A touchback, i.e. kicking the ball into the end zone, leads to a change of possession at the opponent’s 30-yard line from the kicking team’s perspective. Previously, the rule was at the 25-yard line.

One hope of the fans was that the teams would have to return the ball more, as the kickers would no longer play the ball into the end zone due to the five extra yards.

For the general fan, a return is more spectacular than a simple touchback. However, the statistics from the preseason point to a different scenario

Preseason analysis: More touchbacks, hardly any returns

Because the 49 preseason games show: the teams forgo the opportunity to let the opponent get a return and kick the ball to the touchback more often, even if it starts at the 30 instead of the 25-yard line. Statistically, teams run to the 28-yard line when they get a return.

This measly two-yard difference is probably not an incentive for teams to allow a longer return. They obviously prefer to play it safe and deny their opponents a return.

However, many special teams coordinators have already let it slip that they did not want to reveal their ideas about the new kickoff rule in the preseason. So perhaps all the teams are still keeping a low profile.

For the NFL, fewer returns would not be a problem at all, but rather a positive. The league wanted to limit the risk of injury, which was more common with this type of move.