Geno Smith has extended his contract with the Las Vegas Raiders before his first game and is taking a big hit. This is a big risk. A commentary.

“I say it every year, this is my favorite time. After all, we’re undefeated,” Mark Davis joked at the most recent meeting of all 32 NFL team owners.

A little self-irony never hurts, there’s no question about that. But at the same time, Davis’s statement about his Las Vegas Raiders is connected to a sad truth: the franchise has been a gray mouse in the NFL for years.

Vegas enters 2025 with the third head coach and general manager tandem in the past three seasons. Their last playoff victory dates back to 2002. What looks like a transposed number is not.

Especially since the Raiders have only had two seasons with a positive record in 22 years (2016 and 2021).

Owner Davis has officially initiated a change due to these disastrous statistics, to his credit. Tom Brady is to contribute his expertise as co-owner. As well as the new general manager John Spytek and head coach Pete Carroll, who knows how to win a Super Bowl.

In addition, Las Vegas has released Geno Smith from Seattle and has now even signed the quarterback on a long-term contract.

So far, so good. But a look at the numbers of this deal shows: That was a mistake. The Raiders have overpaid Smith!

Las Vegas Raiders are paying Geno Smith too much guaranteed salary

Smith has signed a contract in Vegas for two additional years. According to US media reports, he will earn around 75 million US dollars.

That’s a pretty penny, even though the contract itself is mediocre compared to other QBs in the league.

But the 34-year-old is said to be guaranteed $66.5 million alone – and that’s the crucial point. The contract could be worth as much as $88.5 million in total through bonuses. Well then, enjoy your early retirement, Geno!

But seriously: While these aren’t the numbers of the top quarterbacks, in terms of guaranteed salary, he’s ahead of people like his successor Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield or Russell Wilson.

Is it worth it? Smith is 34 and a leader in every respect. He showed that with his late rise in Seattle. In his previous teams, the playmaker was more of a follower.

In addition, the 2013 second-round pick has to be given credit for one thing: he is consistent. In the past three seasons, Smith has started 49 of 51 possible games. During that time, he ranks fourth in the league in completions on passes received, at 68 percent, according to ESPN. And consistency is what the Raiders need in the most important position.

Expensive rebuild – big risk

But $66.5 million in guaranteed salary? The Raiders have used up valuable money that they need for the rest of the rebuild. Especially since it’s not like Smith is a 25-year-old franchise quarterback who will still be playing for the Raiders for the next decade.

Rather, he is an interim solution, as head coach Carroll emphasized recently: “Geno is an emergency solution.” And for such an interim solution, Smith is making a lot of money.

NFL fans on social media are already joking about the deal. “Smith’s agent has ripped off the Raiders,” they say.

It’s hard to disagree with that. In any case, Smith can look forward to his payday. And for Davis, let’s hope the risk pays off and he doesn’t have to embarrass himself in front of the other team owners again next year with self-deprecation.