The Miami Dolphins and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa have agreed on a contract extension. This could cost the Dolphins dearly – literally. A comment.

After months of rumors, there is now clarity: quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins are going their separate ways for the time being.

According to media reports, the 26-year-old has extended his contract by four years and can earn up to 212.4 million US dollars. Around 147 million of this is to be guaranteed, and a premature release of Tagovailoa would only make financial sense after the 2026 season.

The new contract makes the former first-round pick one of the league’s top earners. A decision that comes with a lot of risk for the Dolphins.

Tua Tagovailoa: Statistically good

Sportingly, Tagovailoa has some good arguments in his favor: Nearly 13,000 passing yards, 82 touchdowns and only 32 interceptions in four seasons, plus the oft-cited quarterback wins statistic (34-19) – his first few years in the NFL can be categorized as successful.

Tagovailoa has every right not to make any voluntary concessions in contract negotiations and wants to be paid as well as possible.

But it is also clear that as good as the façade may look, the basic structure behind it is shaky.

Is Tua just part of the system?

Because Tua has benefited enormously from a very good environment in recent years. The offense is loaded with difference makers and speed in the passing and running game, head coach Mike McDaniel has quickly earned a reputation as one of the most creative and best offensive minds in the league, and the defense has played well overall over the last two seasons.

In other words, few situations are more comfortable for a quarterback than the one found in Miami. It’s not for nothing that quarterbacks who played or play in the Shanahan system (McDaniel comes from this “coaching pedigree”) have been among the top statistical performers in recent years.

Of course, this quarterback-friendly system also requires a passer who can implement the offense, make the right decisions and throw accurate passes. But are these qualities worth over 200 million US dollars?

Cap space could become a problem

The Dolphins have given their answer to that question with the extension. And must now rely on Tagovailoa to perform at his best even under potentially more difficult circumstances.

The 26-year-old will take up significantly more cap space with his new contract than he did with his rookie deal. As of today, the Dolphins have already exceeded the cap space for the 2025 season by almost 44 million US dollars.

Adjustments and extensions can remedy the situation, but the Dolphins – with a view to the many high-dollar contracts in the squad – are likely to operate on the back burner in free agency over the next few years. In addition, some of the mainstays in the squad whose contracts expire after the coming season could sign more lucrative deals elsewhere.

Dolphins: Tua must deliver

The Dolphins would have had the option to let the final year of Tagovailoa’s contract run its course and he would have been a free agent after next season. Instead, they opted for an early contract extension, probably at the request of head coach McDaniel.

A clear commitment, which is sure to create a positive atmosphere for Tagovailoa and in the locker room. But now it’s up to him to justify this sum in sporting terms.

The 26-year-old has played his way into MVP conversations at times in the past, before injuries or a dip in form slowed him down again. In important games, or when defenses were able to shut down the offense around him, he was too rarely the difference-maker.

As one of the highest-paid players in the league, hopes now rest all the more on him, performance fluctuations can quickly become expensive – and hurt the Dolphins.