Quarterback Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills’ offence are stumbling after a furious start to the season. Allen is currently panting after his form and keeps slipping on the tightrope between genius and madness.

Munich – There are players who display such inhumanly good skills on the pitch that they are described in machine-like terms. With something seemingly superhuman. Faster, stronger, better. Then Josh Allen throws passes over 70 yards with his rocket arm or runs, like a bulldozer, through opposing defensive lines.

And so, over the first seven games, the Allen-led offense ran like a well-oiled machine.

But in recent weeks, the human element has been creeping more and more into the Buffalo Bills quarterback’s game. Systemic flaws, if you will. And the Bills are coming apart at the seams after starting the season 6-1 with two losses in their last three games.

Josh Allen: Six interceptions and three fumbles

Six interceptions and three fumbles were recorded by Allen over that span. Especially costly were the total of three interceptions just outside the opponent’s end zone, the RedZone. In his entire career, he only made two interceptions in that area of the field until the eighth play of the game this year.

“That’s on me and it’s going to be stupid to look back at those mistakes. I’ve got to make the right decisions in those situations, make the right throws,” Allen said at the press conference after the recent loss to the Vikings.

Against the Vikings, cornerback Patrick Peterson caught two interceptions. In both situations, Allen forced the football into windows that were already closed. To be fair, the first interception was on fourth down, Allen more or less “had to” throw at that moment.

Josh Allen: Too risky?

The second interception of the game, in overtime, however, fell into the “avoidable” category. The Vikings often tried to stop the Bills’ vertical passing game with a deep secondary. To do so, they used Cover 4 on almost a quarter of their snaps, a comparatively passive zone defence that offers leeway in the short passing game but usually works well against deep passes.

Such was the case with the interception that gave the Vikings the win. And Allen’s pass toward wide receiver Gabe Davis is late, too shallow and into covered space.

I just don’t understand what Josh Allen saw on that final throw. Bills Vikings pic.twitter.com/QsVcerTCJ1

– Henry McKenna (@McKennAnalysis) November 13, 2022

Mismatches between Allen and his pass receivers (on rookie Sauce Gardner’s interception against the Jets, for example), forced throws into closed windows and Allen’s impatience when defenses force him into a lot of short passing with more passive and deep formations plague the Bills. 

“Josh is a very confident player. But sometimes you can’t force things, you have to take what the defence gives you,” Head Coach Sean McDermott said at the post-game press conference. That Allen gets impatient now and then is understandable. Anyone with a rocket arm certainly doesn’t want to fly short-range all the time.

Buffalo Bills: Problems in the second half

The head coach is concerned about another issue, though: the Bills have scored just 12 second-half points over their last three games – lowest in the league.

“That’s something we’re going to look at this week,” McDermott said. The Bills have (correctly) been among the league’s most pass-happy teams in recent years. McDermott cautions, however, that his team must not become too one-dimensional. Despite half-time leads in all three games, the Buffalo team ran the ball “only” 33 times in the second half.

Twelve of the carries were taken by Josh Allen. Running back Devin Singletary averaged 4.3 yards per run. “The Motor,” as he’s known, isn’t necessarily running at full speed, though. Defenses rely on a “box” of eight or more defenders for only 13 percent of Singletary’s runs against the Bills,

In addition, Allen himself exudes a lot of danger in the run game, which gives Singletary plenty of spaces, but he doesn’t use them ideally. According to the statistic “Rushing yards over expected”, which measures how many rushing yards the ball carrier should score when the ball is handed over, Singletary leaves an average of 0.3 yards. Not a high figure, but adds up over time.

Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen often under pressure

So the solution can’t necessarily be to run the ball bluntly more often. Singletary has shown too little individually for that so far. A few more runs for nippier players like James Cook, Nyheim Hines or Khalil Shakir certainly wouldn’t hurt. However, neglecting the passing game for the running game is out of the question. It is too strong for that, despite the lapses.

And yet, the Bills and Allen need to tweak some of the offensive machinery. The quarterback has been under pressure on an average of 41 percent of his dropbacks in the last three games. Faster and shorter passes, coupled with an improvement in the offensive line’s performance, can lower that figure.

“We’re going to bust our butts for Josh,” centre Mitch Morse said after the recent loss.

Buffalo Bills: More solutions

Receivers of the short passes could be running backs Cook or Hines, for example. Both have good catching skills and speed to gain space after catching a pass, but have been used sparingly so far. Ken Dorsey, the offensive coordinator, can get Allen back in rhythm with those easy completions or pre-determined passes.

And Allen then has to take the “easy” passes. By no means should the vertical, aggressive plays be dropped. Rather, Allen must be clear when the time is right. At the moment, he is by no means in an absolute slump in form. In all three games, he created plays on foot and through the air that any quarterback would love to see in his year in review. It’s just that he has lacked consistency from play to play in recent weeks.

He needs to find that again on his tightrope walk. Then the Bills’ offense will be running smoothly again. Maybe the man with the rocket arm and the bulldozer running style will find the reset button before the game against the Cleveland Browns.